If you are an RCB fan, you must wish for the team to win its final two league stage contests while MI and LSG drop their final contests. GT already has the top slot locked up in the IPL 2023, and CSK and LSG stand a very strong chance of finishing in the top 4 on points.
In the six matches that remain in the IPL 2023 league stage, there are still 64 outcomes that could occur. To determine the probability that each team will make the playoffs. Right now, one team will undoubtedly win the IPL 2023 Title, two other teams will nearly certainly make the playoffs, and a fourth team has a very good chance of doing so.
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Here’s a team by team analysis on who can win the IPL 2023 title:
At the conclusion of the group stage, GT are already likely of winning the table. Nobody else can score 18 points.
CSK has a 96.9% chance of finishing in the top four on points, and the only two outcomes that may place them in fifth place include RCB, LSG, and MI winning their remaining games and CSK losing to DC. The outcome of the PBKS-RR game would not be significant in such scenario.
Similar circumstances exist for third-placed LSG, which has a 96.9% likelihood of finishing in the top four in terms of points. They can only finish fifth on points if they lose their final match and RCB, CSK, and MI win.
Fourth position MI’s odds of finishing in the top four on points are slightly lower, at 87.5%. If they lose their final match against SRH and RCB win both of their remaining games, they can finish fifth on points.
RCB, who is now in fifth place, has a slight 25% chance of finishing in the top four in terms of points. But if they win both of their remaining games, they will at least tie for fourth and will only be unable to qualify for NRR if both MI and LSG win in their last games.
RR are currently in sixth place, and since their best result is tied fourth, they can only advance to the playoffs via the NRR route.
The odds of seventh-placed KKR finishing in the top four on points are 9.4%, and even that scenario involves a three- or four-way tie. To compensate for their already low NRR, they will need to win their final game decisively.
With a 9.4% possibility of tying for fourth place with one to three other teams and an NRR that is just little worse than KKR’s, eighth-placed PBKS are in a situation very similar to that of tenth-placed SRH and DC, who have already been eliminated from the play-off races.
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